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In fact, with the exception of a couple big-ticket losses at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, Kathryn Bigelow’s film has nearly accomplished the same sweep that “Slumdog Millionaire” pulled off last year. By that yardstick, the film seems like a sure thing to win the Best Picture Oscar on March 7, particularly because those two high-profile losses came at the hands of two different films (“Avatar” at the Globes, “Inglourious Basterds” at SAG) rather than one.

But then I started looking at all ““Brokeback”  Mountain’s” pre-Oscar record from four years ago and I found some striking similarities. 

“Brokeback” managed the rare feat of winning Best Picture and Best Director at both the New York and Los Angeles film critics awards; so did ““Hurt Locker.” “Brokeback” also picked up those two big prizes at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards; so did “Hurt Locker.” “Brokeback” won the trifecta of PGA, DGA, and WGA trophies; so did “Hurt Locker.” “Brokeback” won 4 BAFTAs, including Best Film, Director, and Screenplay; “Hurt Locker” picked up 6 awards, including Best Film, Director, and Screenplay. And of course, “Brokeback” lost the SAG cast award, and so did “Hurt Locker.” (The main difference between the two films’ tallies is that “Brokeback” did win four Globes, including Best Drama and Best Director, while “Hurt Locker”  went 0 for 3.)

All of this is on my mind right now because we’re about to put our Oscar Odds issue to bed (it’ll be on stands this Friday), and it’s really making me think twice about my prediction that The “Hurt Locker”  will emerge victorious on March 7.

There’s still a distinct possibility that “Hurt Locker”  will mirror “Brokeback”  yet again and win three Oscars (let’s say Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing) but lose the big one to a more easily-digestible rival, in this case “Avatar.” 

But I’m swayed by the argument (best articulated by Steve Pond over at The Wrap) that even if “Avatar” scores the most No. 1 votes, The “Hurt Locker”  is likely to perform better in subsequent rounds of voting, since Bigelow’s film may have more No. 2 and No. 3 rankings than “Avatar” will. So, fully knowing that I may end up being wrong, I’m sticking with The “Hurt Locker”.

Kathryn Bigelow won the best-director battle with "Avatar"'s James Cameron, her ex-husband, for her intense depiction of a bomb-disposal squad in Iraq.

"It means so much that this film seems to be touching people's hearts and minds," Bigelow said. 

Both films had eight nominations for the British awards, considered an indicator of possible success at the Academy Awards in Los Angeles next month. "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" each has nine Oscar nominations.

"The Hurt Locker" also took British prizes for original screenplay cinematography, editing and sound.

"Avatar" won awards for production design and visual effects for its vivid vision of a distant moon populated by a blue-skinned species called the Na'vi.

"Hurt Locker" screenwriter Mark Boal dedicated the best-film prize to the hope of peace "and bringing the boys and girls back home."

Bigelow also paid tribute to soldiers serving in Iraq, and said the goal of the film was "putting a bit of a spotlight on a very, very difficult situation."

"I hope that in some small way this film can begin a debate ... and bring closure to this conflict," she said.

The "Avatar"/"Hurt Locker" battle initially seemed like a David-and-Goliath story. Cameron's last feature, "Titanic," won 11 Oscars, including picture and director. "Avatar" is a global phenomenon that has taken more than $2 billion at the box office.

"Hurt Locker" has made about a hundredth that much.

"It did not seem like a slam-dunk commercial proposition," said Boal, who thanked Bigelow and the cast for making "an unpopular story about an unpopular war."

Homegrown British talent did not go home empty-handed. Rising star Carey Mulligan was named best actress for playing a precocious teenager in 1960s London in "An Education."

Colin Firth was named best actor for his performance as a bereaved Englishman in California in Tom Ford's "A Single Man."

Firth said he almost declined the award-winning role, which has also earned him an Oscar nomination. He said he had been about to turn it down by e-mail "when someone came to repair my fridge." He never sent the e-mail.

"I would like to thank the fridge guy," Firth said. 

Firth said he had emerged from working with fashion designer-turned-director Ford "better groomed, more fragrant and more nominated than one has ever been before."

Austrian actor Christoph Waltz, already a hot Oscar favorite, won the supporting actor prize for his turn as a chilling, charming Nazi colonel in "Inglourious Basterds." The supporting actress award went to Mo'nique for "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire."

Director Duncan Jones took the award for best British debut for his lost-in-space drama "Moon."

A tearful Jones, whose father is musician David Bowie, said it had taken him a long time to figure out what he wanted to do with his life.

"Finally, I think I've found what I love doing," he said.