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For Hollywood pundits, industry folk and Oscar fans still paying attention on Monday, a major question remained: How did Hurt Locker beat Avatar?

For as much as "The Hurt Locker" was the critics' darling, it had three major strikes against it in its battle against the mighty James Cameron's "Avatar."

First, the box office was paltry — it's taken in just $14.7 million domestically, compared to an amazing $720.6 million for "Avatar." That makes "The Hurt Locker" the lowest-grossing best picture winner since accurate records have been kept.

Second, it had no big acting names, usually an important factor in Oscar victory.

And third, it was about the Iraq war, a subject moviegoers traditionally just don't want to deal with. "Iraq is usually the kiss of death at the Oscars," says Tom O'Neil, blogger for the Los Angeles Times' Envelope, an awards site.

But even with 10 nominees in the running for this year's best picture Oscar, the two films — whose directors were once married — were quickly pitted against each other in the race for Hollywood's highest honor.

How did "The Hurt Locker" win out? Theories abound:

Finally a non-political film about Iraq
Many films about the Iraq war have fallen into a trap of appearing preachy or at least having a strong point of view. Viewers may or may not agree with that view — that still doesn't mean they want to get it at the movies.

But "The Hurt Locker," a story of three technicians on a bomb-defusing team in Baghdad, is at heart an action movie — a documentary-style close-up of the men, their relationships, their missteps and the almost unbearable tension inherent in their exhausting, terrifying, tedious work.

"This isn't that kind of muckraking film aiming to show torture or violation of rules of war," says Robert Sklar, film professor at New York University. "This is a film about men trying to save lives rather than take them. It's also a buddy story. It has classic war-movie themes."

Oscar likes films with an important message
Often the Academy honors big, sweeping films, which "The Hurt Locker" is certainly not. But it also looks for films with a substantial message. "Oscar likes films of importance, with a capital I," says film historian Leonard Maltin. "Often they're big films, but this is a small film that dealt with a really important subject."

Oscar voters don't care about box office
Who says Oscar cares about box office? "The Oscars don't pay attention to that at all, and nor should they," Maltin says. In fact, he adds, they've often been accused of being too elitist, favoring independent movies over big films favored by the broader public.

Yes, they do!
Nonsense, says O'Neil, of The Envelope: "The Academy wants their movies to do well. Then they anoint them." Even last year's "Slumdog Millionaire," which originally almost went straight to DVD, had made $40 million before the nominations, then rode to $70 million by the time of the awards, he says.

It's about the campaigning
All of "Hurt Locker's" technical merit aside, "it would be naive to think Oscar campaigning had nothing to do with it," says O'Neil. He credits Cynthia Swartz, whose public relations firm was given the Oscar campaigning job by Summit, the film's distributor, which was looking for industry respect and had plenty of money to fund the campaign, having already cashed in with the "Twilight" vampire movies.

"It was a very savvy campaign," says O'Neil. "Full force, and highly aggressive."

The woman factor
As compelling as her movie was, director Kathryn Bigelow had a compelling story of her own. This director who specializes not in female-oriented films but in big action thrillers had a real shot at becoming the first woman in Oscar history to win the best director prize, with her film winning best picture, too.

Yet Bigelow tried to downplay that element of her story, saying in interviews that she just wanted to be seen as a filmmaker, not a female one.

"Bigelow refused to capitalize on the woman factor, and to her credit," says Maltin. Everyone else wanted to make it a story but her. Still, you can't deny it had some impact."

The ex factor
Nor did Bigelow have any desire to capitalize on the "Ex Factor" — in case you're way behind on your Oscar gossip, she was married to Cameron from 1989-91. Were there some voters who were secretly rooting for her to leave him in the dust? No way of knowing, and the two seemed amicable through the awards season, with him standing and cheering as she won her Oscar. Still, there's no doubt that the "battle of the exes" (ok, we're done with the puns) added to the hype.

Best Picture

      The Hurt Locker
      Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro
 
Actor in a Leading Role

      Jeff Bridges
      Crazy Heart
  
Actor in a Supporting Role

      Christoph Waltz
      Inglourious Basterds


Actress in a Leading Role

      Sandra Bullock
      The Blind Side

Actress in a Supporting Role

      Mo'Nique
      Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Animated Feature Film

      Up
      Pete Docter

Art Direction

      Avatar
      Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg (Art Direction); Kim Sinclair (Set Decoration)

Cinematography

      Avatar
      Mauro Fiore

Costume Design

      The Young Victoria
      Sandy Powell

Directing

      The Hurt Locker
      Kathryn Bigelow

Documentary Feature

      The Cove
      Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens

Documentary Short

      Music by Prudence
      Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett

Film Editing
      The Hurt Locker
      Bob Murawski and Chris Innis

Foreign Language Film

      The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos)
      Argentina
      Directed by Juan José Campanella

Makeup

      Star Trek
      Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow

Music (Original Score)

      Up
      Michael Giacchino

Music (Original Song) : Crazy Heart

      "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)"
      Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Short Film (Animated)

      Logorama
      Nicolas Schmerkin

Short Film (Live Action)

      The New Tenants
      Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Sound Editing

      The Hurt Locker
      Paul N.J. Ottosson

Sound Mixing

      The Hurt Locker
      Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett

Visual Effects

      Avatar
      Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

      Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
      Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher

Writing (Original Screenplay)

      The Hurt Locker
      Written by Mark Boal







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Here are the Political News Oscar Predictions:

• Best Picture: The movie Hurt Locker is a wartime personal story of a journalist Mark Boal who’s experience with a bomb squad set in the conflict of Iraq. While this is a spectacular movie we still have to weight the odds are on Avatar. Avatar: The Oscar goes to Avatar for Best Picture

• Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow for Hurt Locker
• Best Actor goes to Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart.
• Best Actress goes to Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
• Best Supporting Actor and the winner is Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
• Best Supporting Actress and the winner is Mo’Nique in Precious.
• Best Original Screen Play goes to Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
• Best Adapted Screen Play goes to Up in the Air
• Best Art Direction has to be Avatar
• Best Visual Effects again has to be Avatar.
• Best Sound Editing and the winner is Avatar.
• Best Sound Mixing ditto on Avatar.
• Best Makeup will go to Star Trek.
• Best Costume Design will go to Young Victoria.
• Best Cinematography a tie between Avatar and Hurt Locker but we will give
• in to the 3-D effects and Avatar will walk away with the Oscar.
• Best Film Editing goes to Hurt Locker.
• Best Original Song goes to Crazy Heart.
• Best Original Score goes to Up or Avatar it is a toss up.
• Best Documentary Feature goes to The Cove.
• Best Foreign Film and the winner is Un Prophete.
• Best Animated Feature and the Oscar goes to Up.