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In fact, with the exception of a couple big-ticket losses at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, Kathryn Bigelow’s film has nearly accomplished the same sweep that “Slumdog Millionaire” pulled off last year. By that yardstick, the film seems like a sure thing to win the Best Picture Oscar on March 7, particularly because those two high-profile losses came at the hands of two different films (“Avatar” at the Globes, “Inglourious Basterds” at SAG) rather than one.

But then I started looking at all ““Brokeback”  Mountain’s” pre-Oscar record from four years ago and I found some striking similarities. 

“Brokeback” managed the rare feat of winning Best Picture and Best Director at both the New York and Los Angeles film critics awards; so did ““Hurt Locker.” “Brokeback” also picked up those two big prizes at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards; so did “Hurt Locker.” “Brokeback” won the trifecta of PGA, DGA, and WGA trophies; so did “Hurt Locker.” “Brokeback” won 4 BAFTAs, including Best Film, Director, and Screenplay; “Hurt Locker” picked up 6 awards, including Best Film, Director, and Screenplay. And of course, “Brokeback” lost the SAG cast award, and so did “Hurt Locker.” (The main difference between the two films’ tallies is that “Brokeback” did win four Globes, including Best Drama and Best Director, while “Hurt Locker”  went 0 for 3.)

All of this is on my mind right now because we’re about to put our Oscar Odds issue to bed (it’ll be on stands this Friday), and it’s really making me think twice about my prediction that The “Hurt Locker”  will emerge victorious on March 7.

There’s still a distinct possibility that “Hurt Locker”  will mirror “Brokeback”  yet again and win three Oscars (let’s say Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing) but lose the big one to a more easily-digestible rival, in this case “Avatar.” 

But I’m swayed by the argument (best articulated by Steve Pond over at The Wrap) that even if “Avatar” scores the most No. 1 votes, The “Hurt Locker”  is likely to perform better in subsequent rounds of voting, since Bigelow’s film may have more No. 2 and No. 3 rankings than “Avatar” will. So, fully knowing that I may end up being wrong, I’m sticking with The “Hurt Locker”.